Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Why September 2011 is Critical For Israel and the Palestinians

Let me net this out for you, with of course, some of my own commentary.  Then you can read the nitty-gritty details for yourself from a rather well-informed article by Haaretz.  But here are the key points:

  1. If the U.N. declares a state for Palestinians within the 1967 borders, as the Palestinian Authority is insisting it does this September by a vote, then Israel will take its own unilateral action.
  2. Some U.N. members are encouraging the Palestinians to forgo negotiations with Israel and to pursue recognition by the U.N.
  3. Israel says that violates the Oslo Accords and will lead to violence on the ground.
  4. One diplomat of the U.N. said in light of no progress in negotiations, it is likely most U.N. members will vote for Palestinian recognition.
  5. No actual decision yet made by Israel but some options include: applying Israeli law to the West Bank or annexing major settlement blocs to Israel.
  6. September is pivotal because last September B.O. told U.N. general assembly he wished to see a Palestinian state become a member of the UN within a year.  (Watch him deal with this one. Clearly, he won't be vetoing any such move even if he could and he can't.)
  7. Also, parties had agreed talks they started last September would last about one year.
  8. Third, Palestinian program for establishing institutions needed by a new state wraps up this Septemeber.
  9. Palestinian Authority (P.A.) President Abbas has told former Israeli leaders (he doesn't seem to talk to the current one) no further talks after this September.  Other P.A. officials have added, if progress is being made, they'll defer the vote request at the U.N.
  10. Also P.A. seems to be saying could talk for three months (June, July, August) but Israel would have to suspend all construction in the West Bank.
  11. If so, P.A. would not renew violence against Israel (at least they're admitting they do cause it).
  12. Currently no direct contacts between the parties.
So there you have it, folks.  The clock is ticking towards September.  For the first time this appears to be a real deadline.  If the U.N. declare a Palestinian statehood, on what is currently Israeli ground, then Israel has no choice but to take unilateral action.  So, it seems (one can never be sure) that this September timetable has some significance.  Both parties, but especially the P.A. and all their U.N. supporters are getting very impatient.  If Israel is smart, it will have them "throw the first boulder."

Israel threatens unilateral steps if UN recognizes Palestinian state - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

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