Tuesday, January 24, 2012

If sanctions fail to move Iran, war may be inevitable.

This is not the kind of headline one wants to read these days, yet here it is even though it's the opinion of one writer from the National Post.  You can read all the details in the link below, but first I did want to point out a few things . . .

1. Will the European embargo on Iranian oil that won't start until July cause the Iranians to stop pursuing nuclear weapons? I doubt it.

2. If Japan and South Korea joins Europe and the U.S., up to 80% of Iran's operating revenue could be impacted. That's huge. But Japan and South Korea aren't there yet.

3. And if oil is cut off to Europe, then some European countries (Italy, Spain, Greece) could be in real trouble themselves -- that's why the EU embargo is being phased in very slowly -- may I say "it's oozing in".

4. In exchange, Iran is threatening to stop the oil NOW. You know, akin to a "lockout before a potential strike" in labor relations' terms. They'll do this by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

5. In steps the U.S. of A. with a potential major naval confrontation. War. Two aircraft carriers are there or close by now and a third one is on its way.

6. Alternatively, Iran could jack up its prices. That would cause NATO some troubles in Afghanistan. (But hey what does Iran care?)

7. After four rounds of UN imposed sanctions on Iran recently, the Iranians are still denying they are pursuing nuclear weapons.

8. And then of course there is a the possibility of more talks between Iran and the U.S., but if that happens, Obama will be snookered again, and we'll be no further ahead with respect to stopping Iran from getting the nuclear bombs they want.

9. Meanwhile the cyber attacks against Iran continue. And the West is trying to 'talk' and connect with the current Iranian government's opposition.

So that's the latest from Iran. Meanwhile there are rumors that PM Netanyahu of Israel is losing patience.

And if you think this is all too much to take, try keeping up to speed on all this and at the same time reading Joel Rosenberg's fiction, "The Twelth Imam".  How that's eerie.   In the middle of the night, I have trouble separating the two plots in my mind.

But God still listens to, and still answers, prayers.

Iran: If sanctions fail, war may be inevitable: Peter Goodspeed | Full Comment | National Post

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